Le Mans 2–2 Stade Brestois 29
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.69–1.65.
The brain read
Stade Brestois 29 created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.6 and the shot count agreed (8–13, 5–5 on target). Stade Brestois 29 got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 5). Le Mans's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.7 xG, 5 of 8 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Stade Brestois 29 shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Le Mans 3-4-3
- 8 Alexandre Lauray (M)
- 9 Antoine Rabillard (F)
- 11 Adil Bourabaa (M)
- 14 Louis Mafouta (F)
- 15 Noa Boissé (D)
- 18 Lucas Buades (M)
- 21 Théo Eyoum (D)
- 25 Dame Gueye (F)
- 26 Rayan Bamba (M)
- 76 Yasser Larouci (D)
- 98 Nicolas Kocik (G)
Bench: Ewan Hatfout, Raúl Torrente, Djibril Sidibé, Lucas Calodat, Lucas Bretelle, Milan Robin, William Harhouz, Erwan Colas, Billal Brahimi
Stade Brestois 29 4-2-3-1
- 1 Egil Selvik (G)
- 2 Bradley Locko (D)
- 7 Joseph Nonge (M)
- 9 Pathé Mboup (M)
- 10 Romain Del Castillo (M)
- 13 Joris Chotard (D)
- 19 Ludovic Ajorque (F)
- 23 Kamory Doumbia (M)
- 29 Lucas Tousart (M)
- 70 Kenny Lala (D)
- 71 Raphaël Le Guen (D)
Bench: Romain Cagnon, Luc Zogbé, Evan Mailly, Gautier Lloris, Mamady Diambou, Axel Camblan, Hamidou Makalou, Mathis Lainé, Mama Baldé
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Le Mans or draw | 1.42 | 66.2% | +0.7 pts |
| Double chance Stade Brestois 29 or draw | 1.51 | 62.3% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.5% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Le Mans | 1.76 | 52.8% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stade Brestois 29 | 1.97 | 47.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 71.9% | -4.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.99 | 47.8% | -5.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 27.7% | -4.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | 53.9% | -3.9 pts |
| Le Mans over 1.5 team goals | 2.40 | 39.0% | -4.2 pts |
| Stade Brestois 29 over 1.5 team goals | 2.57 | 36.4% | -3.7 pts |
| Le Mans clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +1.5 pts |
| Stade Brestois 29 clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +1.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.94 · 1-0 7.87 · 0-1 8.45 · 2-1 9.04 · 0-0 9.40
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 21:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).