Nice 0–0 Lorient
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.92–0.87.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Nice to win (41%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.9–0.9, shots 11–7 with 1–2 on target. Nice held 64% of the ball. Nice's finishing let them down — 0 from 0.9 xG despite 1 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 0–0 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Nice 3-4-2-1
- 7 Gauthier Hein (F)
- 10 Sofiane Diop (F)
- 23 Yehvann Diouf (G)
- 26 Melvin Bard (M)
- 33 Antoine Mendy (D)
- 35 Xavier Mandza (D)
- 39 Djibril Coulibaly (M)
- 44 Zoumana Diallo (F)
- 55 Youssouf Ndayishimiye (D)
- 87 Everton Pereira (M)
- 92 Jonathan Clauss (M)
Bench: Teddy Boulhendi, Hamza Koutoune, Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga, Mohamed Abdelmonem, Nathan N'Goumou, Aboulaye Camara, Issiaga Camara, Mohamed Ali Cho, Isak Jansson
Lorient 3-4-2-1
- 3 Montassar Talbi (D)
- 8 Noah Cadiou (M)
- 11 Théo Le Bris (M)
- 17 Jean Victor Makengo (F)
- 20 Dembo Sylla (D)
- 32 Nathaniel Adjei (D)
- 33 Gabin Bernardeau (F)
- 38 Yvon Mvogo (G)
- 42 Mamadou Koné (F)
- 43 Arsène Kouassi (M)
- 62 Arthur Avom Ebong (M)
Bench: Bingourou Kamara, Isaak Touré, Alec Georgen, Noah Mbamba, Daniel Semedo, Panos Katseris, Bandiougou Fadiga, Souleymane Faye, Aiyegun Tosin
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Nice or draw | 1.35 | 69.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Double chance Lorient or draw | 1.59 | 59.4% | +4.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.34 | 70.6% | -3.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Nice | 1.63 | 57.5% | -3.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lorient | 2.20 | 42.5% | +3.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.37 | 68.7% | -7.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.17 | 43.7% | -9.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.96 | 23.8% | -8.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.84 | 50.6% | -6.7 pts |
| Nice over 1.5 team goals | 2.43 | 38.4% | -9.1 pts |
| Lorient over 1.5 team goals | 3.00 | 31.1% | -4.2 pts |
| Nice clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +3.9 pts |
| Lorient clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +4.9 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.73 · 1-0 6.74 · 0-1 8.16 · 0-0 8.24 · 2-1 8.72
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 20:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 26 | Nice | 3-3 | Lorient |
| 30 Nov 25 | Lorient | 3-1 | Nice |