Nottingham Forest 0–1 Leeds
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.33–0.28.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Nottingham Forest to win (38%); it finished with Leeds to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 34% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.3–0.3, shots 7–8 with 2–1 on target. On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw | 1.36 | 69.6% | -0.1 pts |
| Double chance Leeds or draw | 1.60 | 59.1% | +0.6 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 71.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Nottingham Forest | 1.63 | 57.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Leeds | 2.18 | 42.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 70.8% | -2.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.07 | 46.2% | -3.1 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.56 | 26.4% | -2.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.78 | 52.4% | -2.3 pts |
| Nottingham Forest over 1.5 team goals | 2.30 | 40.8% | -2.0 pts |
| Leeds over 1.5 team goals | 2.81 | 33.2% | -1.4 pts |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +1.3 pts |
| Leeds clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +2.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.03 · 1-0 7.39 · 2-1 8.79 · 0-1 8.89 · 0-0 9.25
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb 26 | Leeds | 3-1 | Nottingham Forest |
| 09 Nov 25 | Nottingham Forest | 3-1 | Leeds |