Parma 0–1 Cagliari
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.76–0.74.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Cagliari to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 44% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.8–0.7, shots 9–9 with 2–3 on target. On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Parma or draw | 1.38 | 68.6% | +0.8 pts |
| Double chance Cagliari or draw | 1.49 | 63.5% | +0.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.39 | 67.9% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Parma | 1.75 | 53.4% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cagliari | 2.00 | 46.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.48 | 63.6% | -1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.53 | 37.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.92 | 19.1% | -1.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | 46.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Parma over 1.5 team goals | 2.90 | 32.2% | -1.5 pts |
| Cagliari over 1.5 team goals | 3.21 | 29.1% | -0.4 pts |
| Parma clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +2.2 pts |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -0.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.50 · 1-0 6.46 · 0-0 6.62 · 0-1 7.02 · 2-1 9.86
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 21:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb 26 | Parma | 1-1 | Cagliari |
| 13 Sep 25 | Cagliari | 2-0 | Parma |