Southampton 3–1 Stoke City
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.57–0.54.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Southampton to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 51% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.6–0.5, shots 3–12 with 1–2 on target. Stoke City got into the box far more often (9 shots inside it to 1). Southampton's finishing ran hot — 3 from 0.6 xG, 1 of 3 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–1 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Southampton or draw | 1.15 | 81.3% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance Stoke City or draw | 2.28 | 41.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.21 | 77.6% | +0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Southampton | 1.22 | 75.6% | +1.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Stoke City | 3.79 | 24.4% | -1.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 78.0% | +0.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | 56.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.64 | 35.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 54.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Southampton over 1.5 team goals | 1.60 | 58.5% | +1.1 pts |
| Stoke City over 1.5 team goals | 3.40 | 27.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Southampton clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +2.5 pts |
| Stoke City clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | -1.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.37 · 1-0 7.63 · 2-1 7.71 · 2-0 7.98 · 3-1 11.40
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | Stoke City | 0-2 | Southampton |
| 23 Aug 25 | Southampton | 1-2 | Stoke City |