Toulouse 0–2 Lyon
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 2.63–0.16.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Toulouse to win (42%); it finished with Lyon to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 30% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Toulouse created the better chances — the xG read 2.6–0.2 and the shot count agreed (17–6, 2–1 on target). Toulouse got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 4). Toulouse's finishing let them down — 0 from 2.6 xG despite 2 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 0–2 flatters Lyon — on chances created, Toulouse shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Toulouse 3-4-2-1
- 2 Rasmus Nicolaisen (D)
- 3 Mark McKenzie (D)
- 7 Julian Vignolo (M)
- 8 Thomas Jørgensen (M)
- 9 Santiago Hidalgo (F)
- 10 Yann Gboho (F)
- 12 Christ Tapé (D)
- 16 Guillaume Restes (G)
- 23 Cristian Cásseres Jr. (M)
- 31 Niklas Schmidt (M)
- 94 Ismail Diallo (F)
Bench: Mathys Niflore, David Odogu, Seny Koumbassa, Mario Sauer, Mathis Saka, Rafik Messali, Sion Oppong, Jacen Russell Rowe, Ilyas Azizi
Lyon 4-2-3-1
- 2 Mads Bidstrup (M)
- 13 Zachary Athekame (D)
- 20 Felix Bacher (D)
- 22 Clinton Mata (D)
- 24 Julien Duranville (M)
- 26 Kaïl Boudache (M)
- 39 Mathys de Carvalho (M)
- 40 Rémy Descamps (G)
- 45 Rémi Himbert (F)
- 76 Mohamed Ouédraogo (D)
- 99 Noah Nartey (M)
Bench: Dominik Greif, Nicolás Tagliafico, Malick Fofana, Tanner Tessmann, Tyler Morton, Corentin Tolisso, Pavel Šulc, Ernest Nuamah, Loïs Openda
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Toulouse or draw | 1.38 | 68.6% | +9.5 pts |
| Double chance Lyon or draw | 1.60 | 59.1% | -8.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 72.3% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Toulouse | 1.65 | 56.5% | +11.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lyon | 2.15 | 43.5% | -11.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 74.1% | -2.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 50.6% | -3.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.14 | 30.0% | -3.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 55.9% | -2.4 pts |
| Toulouse over 1.5 team goals | 2.17 | 43.3% | +4.3 pts |
| Lyon over 1.5 team goals | 2.60 | 36.0% | -9.3 pts |
| Toulouse clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +4.3 pts |
| Lyon clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -2.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.15 · 1-0 8.08 · 2-1 8.59 · 0-1 9.22 · 1-2 9.99
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 20:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 May 26 | Toulouse | 2-1 | Lyon |
| 05 Oct 25 | Lyon | 1-2 | Toulouse |