Valencia 0–0 Celta Vigo
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.57–0.66.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Valencia to win (45%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 29% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.6–0.7, shots 7–7 with 1–3 on target. A 0–0 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Valencia or draw | 1.39 | 68.4% | -2.7 pts |
| Double chance Celta Vigo or draw | 1.54 | 61.7% | +3.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.35 | 69.9% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Valencia | 1.72 | 54.4% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Celta Vigo | 2.05 | 45.6% | +5.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.41 | 67.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.27 | 42.1% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.11 | 22.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.90 | 49.2% | +0.1 pts |
| Valencia over 1.5 team goals | 2.60 | 36.0% | -2.9 pts |
| Celta Vigo over 1.5 team goals | 2.99 | 31.3% | +2.4 pts |
| Valencia clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | -1.8 pts |
| Celta Vigo clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | +0.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.70 · 1-0 6.77 · 0-0 7.76 · 0-1 7.79 · 2-1 9.25
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-22 19:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr 26 | Valencia | 2-3 | Celta Vigo |
| 03 Jan 26 | Celta Vigo | 4-1 | Valencia |