Angers 0–2 Lille
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.34–1.01.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Lille to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 41% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.3–1, shots 12–9 with 2–6 on target. Angers got into the box far more often (8 shots inside it to 5). Angers's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.3 xG despite 2 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Angers or draw | 2.08 | 45.5% | +1.3 pts |
| Double chance Lille or draw | 1.19 | 79.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.26 | 74.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Angers | 3.34 | 27.9% | +1.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lille | 1.29 | 72.1% | -1.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 71.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 47.5% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.47 | 27.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.90 | 49.4% | +0.1 pts |
| Angers over 1.5 team goals | 3.88 | 24.1% | +0.4 pts |
| Lille over 1.5 team goals | 1.88 | 49.8% | -1.1 pts |
| Angers clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Lille clean sheet | 2.25 | 41.1% | -0.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-1 6.12 · 1-1 6.59 · 0-2 7.47 · 1-2 7.85 · 0-0 9.53
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-23 15:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 26 | Angers | 0-1 | Lille |
| 02 Nov 25 | Lille | 1-0 | Angers |