FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Serie B · Sun 23 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC

Cesena 11 Sampdoria

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What the chances were worth

Cesena
1.03
expected goals (xG)
Sampdoria
1.05
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.03–1.05.

The brain read

Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1–1.1, shots 6–20 with 2–8 on target. Sampdoria got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 4) and Sampdoria held 64% of the ball. A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Cesena
Sampdoria
36%
Ball Possession
64%
6
Total Shots
20
2
Shots on Goal
8
3
Shots off Goal
8
1
Blocked Shots
4
4
Shots inside box
11
2
Shots outside box
9
1.03
Expected goals (xG)
1.05
0
Corner Kicks
11
1
Offsides
2
290
Total passes
491
227
Passes accurate
423
78%
Passes %
86%
18
Fouls
7
3
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
0
7
Goalkeeper Saves
1
0.56
Goals prevented
0.56

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Cesena
37%
market implied · price 2.55 · opened 38%
Draw
30%
market implied · price 3.15 · opened 29%
Sampdoria
34%
market implied · price 2.77 · opened 33%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Cesena or draw1.4166.4%-1.3 pts
Double chance Sampdoria or draw1.4863.3%+2.0 pts
Double chance either team1.3370.3%-0.7 pts
Draw no bet — Cesena1.7852.3%-1.5 pts
Draw no bet — Sampdoria1.9547.7%+1.5 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.3071.5%+0.2 pts
Over 2.5 goals2.0047.1%-0.2 pts
Over 3.5 goals3.4527.0%+0.1 pts
Both teams to score1.7353.5%+0.3 pts
Cesena over 1.5 team goals2.4438.2%-1.2 pts
Sampdoria over 1.5 team goals2.5836.1%+1.1 pts
Cesena clean sheet3.2529.0%+0.0 pts
Sampdoria clean sheet3.4027.7%+0.9 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.71 · 1-0 7.90 · 0-1 8.09 · 0-0 8.63 · 2-1 9.21

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-23 21:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.

Head to head

DateHomeScoreAway
25 Apr 26Cesena0-0Sampdoria
13 Sep 25Sampdoria1-2Cesena