FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Serie A · Sun 23 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC

Frosinone 01 Juventus

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What the chances were worth

Frosinone
0.33
expected goals (xG)
Juventus
1.95
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.33–1.95.

The brain read

Juventus created the better chances — the xG read 0.3–1.9 and the shot count agreed (8–18, 2–5 on target). Juventus got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 6) and Juventus held 65% of the ball. Juventus's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.9 xG despite 5 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 0–1 reads fair.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Frosinone
Juventus
35%
Ball Possession
65%
8
Total Shots
18
2
Shots on Goal
5
4
Shots off Goal
8
2
Blocked Shots
5
6
Shots inside box
13
2
Shots outside box
5
0.33
Expected goals (xG)
1.95
2
Corner Kicks
11
3
Offsides
1
198
Total passes
370
132
Passes accurate
312
67%
Passes %
84%
10
Fouls
13
1
Yellow Cards
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2
0.18
Goals prevented
0.18

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Frosinone
13%
market implied · price 7.25 · opened 13%
Draw
20%
market implied · price 4.67 · opened 21%
Juventus
66%
market implied · price 1.43 · opened 65%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Frosinone or draw2.7934.0%-0.9 pts
Double chance Juventus or draw1.1086.2%-0.2 pts
Double chance either team1.1979.8%+1.0 pts
Draw no bet — Frosinone5.2417.8%-0.3 pts
Draw no bet — Juventus1.1382.2%+0.3 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.2078.8%+3.9 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.6458.1%+5.5 pts
Over 3.5 goals2.5736.7%+5.0 pts
Both teams to score1.8151.6%+4.0 pts
Frosinone over 1.5 team goals4.1822.4%+3.0 pts
Juventus over 1.5 team goals1.4863.3%+3.8 pts
Frosinone clean sheet8.0011.9%-3.4 pts
Juventus clean sheet2.1044.3%-2.5 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 0-2 7.10 · 0-1 7.38 · 1-2 7.78 · 1-1 8.29 · 0-3 9.81

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-23 18:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.