Le Havre 0–1 Monaco
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.60–1.39.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Le Havre to win (38%); it finished with Monaco to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 35% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Monaco created the better chances — the xG read 0.6–1.4 and the shot count agreed (14–15, 4–7 on target). On the balance of chances, the 0–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Le Havre 4-2-3-1
- 6 Junior Mwanga (M)
- 7 Amir Richardson (M)
- 13 Fodé Doucouré (M)
- 14 Rassoul Ndiaye (M)
- 15 Ayumu Seko (D)
- 18 Yanis Zouaoui (D)
- 23 Vincent Sasso (D)
- 25 Ally Samatta (F)
- 26 Simon Ebonog (M)
- 32 Timothee Pembele (D)
- 77 Lionel Mpasi Nzau (G)
Bench: Mory Diaw, Djibril Ouziad, Elias Jelert, Kaito Mizuta, Daren Mosengo, Ismail Bouneb, Sota Nakamura, Enzo Koffi, Josh Maja
Monaco 4-2-3-1
- 1 Lukáš Hrádecký (G)
- 2 Vanderson (D)
- 6 Denis Zakaria (M)
- 8 Lamine Camara (M)
- 10 Aleksandr Golovin (M)
- 15 Eric Dier (D)
- 17 Stanis Idumbo Muzambo (M)
- 20 Nazinho (D)
- 28 Mamadou Coulibaly (M)
- 29 Paris Brunner (F)
- 72 Sadibou Sané (D)
Bench: Philipp Köhn, Thilo Kehrer, Ilane Touré, Pape Cabral, Anis Soubeir, Mathys Detourbet, Mika Biereth, Oumar Konaté, Safouane Benzahra
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Le Havre or draw | 1.87 | 50.7% | +0.7 pts |
| Double chance Monaco or draw | 1.26 | 74.8% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.6% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Le Havre | 2.68 | 34.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Monaco | 1.42 | 65.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 77.5% | -3.1 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 55.0% | -4.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.76 | 34.0% | -4.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.63 | 57.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Le Havre over 1.5 team goals | 2.79 | 33.6% | -3.4 pts |
| Monaco over 1.5 team goals | 1.82 | 51.3% | -3.8 pts |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | +2.0 pts |
| Monaco clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | +2.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.76 · 1-2 7.94 · 0-1 8.07 · 0-2 9.70 · 2-1 11.43
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-23 17:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jan 26 | Le Havre | 0-0 | Monaco |
| 16 Aug 25 | Monaco | 3-1 | Le Havre |