Newcastle 2–2 Liverpool
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.42–2.23.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Newcastle to win (41%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Liverpool created the better chances — the xG read 1.4–2.2 and the shot count agreed (13–27, 4–7 on target). Liverpool got into the box far more often (16 shots inside it to 6). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Liverpool shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Newcastle or draw | 1.89 | 49.8% | -0.7 pts |
| Double chance Liverpool or draw | 1.26 | 74.9% | +1.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Newcastle | 2.81 | 32.9% | -2.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Liverpool | 1.38 | 67.1% | +2.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 81.3% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.55 | 61.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.41 | 40.0% | -3.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.49 | 62.8% | -2.4 pts |
| Newcastle over 1.5 team goals | 2.46 | 38.2% | -2.6 pts |
| Liverpool over 1.5 team goals | 1.63 | 57.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Newcastle clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | -1.0 pts |
| Liverpool clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.29 · 1-2 8.12 · 0-1 10.01 · 0-2 10.82 · 2-2 11.03
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-23 17:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Jan 26 | Liverpool | 4-1 | Newcastle |
| 25 Aug 25 | Newcastle | 2-3 | Liverpool |