Rennes 2–2 Paris Saint Germain

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What the chances were worth

The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.74–1.58.

What the model expected

Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.

Before kick-off the model favoured Paris Saint Germain to win (41%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.

One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.

The brain read

Paris Saint Germain created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.6 and the shot count agreed (7–16, 2–4 on target). Paris Saint Germain got into the box far more often (8 shots inside it to 2) and Paris Saint Germain held 70% of the ball. Rennes's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.7 xG, 2 of 7 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Paris Saint Germain shaded the game.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

Confirmed line-ups

Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.

Head to head