Tenerife 1–0 Almeria
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.19–0.97.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.2–1, shots 15–9 with 2–1 on target. Almeria's finishing let them down — 0 from 1 xG despite 1 of 9 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Tenerife or draw | 1.48 | 63.5% | +4.8 pts |
| Double chance Almeria or draw | 1.42 | 66.1% | -4.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Tenerife | 1.92 | 48.6% | +6.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Almeria | 1.81 | 51.4% | -6.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 71.9% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.98 | 47.7% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.38 | 27.6% | +1.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.72 | 53.7% | +1.5 pts |
| Tenerife over 1.5 team goals | 2.55 | 36.6% | +4.5 pts |
| Almeria over 1.5 team goals | 2.43 | 38.3% | -2.6 pts |
| Tenerife clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Almeria clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -4.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.59 · 0-1 7.62 · 1-0 7.95 · 0-0 8.49 · 1-2 8.71
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-23 21:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).