FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Serie A · Sun 23 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC

Venezia 02 Lecce

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What the chances were worth

Venezia
1.63
expected goals (xG)
Lecce
0.23
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 0–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.63–0.23.

The brain read

Venezia created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–0.2 and the shot count agreed (16–5, 5–2 on target). Venezia got into the box far more often (10 shots inside it to 2) and Venezia held 71% of the ball. Venezia's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.6 xG despite 5 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 0–2 flatters Lecce — on chances created, Venezia shaded it.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Venezia
Lecce
71%
Ball Possession
29%
16
Total Shots
5
5
Shots on Goal
2
9
Shots off Goal
3
2
Blocked Shots
0
10
Shots inside box
2
6
Shots outside box
3
1.63
Expected goals (xG)
0.23
4
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
2
530
Total passes
220
460
Passes accurate
160
87%
Passes %
73%
8
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
1.75
Goals prevented
1.75

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Venezia
47%
market implied · price 2.00 · opened 42%
Draw
30%
market implied · price 3.21 · opened 30%
Lecce
23%
market implied · price 4.13 · opened 28%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Venezia or draw1.2376.8%+5.4 pts
Double chance Lecce or draw1.8052.5%-5.7 pts
Double chance either team1.3470.6%+0.3 pts
Draw no bet — Venezia1.3967.0%+7.8 pts
Draw no bet — Lecce2.8233.0%-7.8 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.3967.8%+0.2 pts
Over 2.5 goals2.2342.8%+0.1 pts
Over 3.5 goals4.0323.4%+0.3 pts
Both teams to score1.9348.6%-0.9 pts
Venezia over 1.5 team goals2.1942.9%+3.8 pts
Lecce over 1.5 team goals3.7325.1%-4.1 pts
Venezia clean sheet2.3839.1%+3.6 pts
Lecce clean sheet3.7525.0%-2.2 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.84 · 1-0 6.09 · 0-0 7.70 · 2-1 8.35 · 2-0 8.71

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-23 18:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.