AS Roma 4–0 Fiorentina
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.72–0.25.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made AS Roma to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 41% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
AS Roma created the better chances — the xG read 2.7–0.2 and the shot count agreed (16–8, 8–4 on target). AS Roma got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 2). AS Roma's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2.7 xG, 8 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
AS Roma 3-4-2-1
- 4 Bryan Cristante (M)
- 5 Evan Ndicka (D)
- 14 Donyell Malen (F)
- 17 Manu Koné (M)
- 21 Paulo Dybala (F)
- 22 Mario Hermoso (D)
- 23 Gianluca Mancini (D)
- 43 Wesley (M)
- 77 Emanuele Lulli (M)
- 86 Rodrigo Mora (F)
- 99 Mile Svilar (G)
Bench: Giorgio De Marzi, Pierluigi Gollini, Nahuel Molina, Daniele Ghilardi, Konstantinos Koulierakis, Jan Ziółkowski, Neil El Aynaoui, Niccolò Pisilli, Santiago Castro, Robinio Vaz, Matías Soulé
Fiorentina 4-3-2-1
- 2 Dodô (D)
- 3 Radu Drăguşin (D)
- 4 Marco Brescianini (M)
- 6 Luca Ranieri (D)
- 14 Arthur Atta (M)
- 17 João Mário (D)
- 27 Cher Ndour (M)
- 30 Franco Mastantuono (M)
- 32 Mateo Pellegrino (F)
- 43 David De Gea (G)
- 44 Nicolò Fagioli (M)
Bench: Oliver Christensen, Luca Lezzerini, Viery, Eman Košpo, Álex Jiménez, Marin Pongračić, Víctor Valdepeñas, Christ Inao Oulaï, Brando Mazzeo, Giovanni Fabbian, Rolando Mandragora, Federico Croci, Moise Kean, Albert Guðmundsson
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance AS Roma or draw | 1.18 | 80.1% | -3.0 pts |
| Double chance Fiorentina or draw | 2.13 | 44.4% | +4.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.25 | 75.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — AS Roma | 1.26 | 73.3% | -4.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Fiorentina | 3.47 | 26.7% | +4.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 73.2% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 49.7% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.27 | 28.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 | 50.5% | +1.7 pts |
| AS Roma over 1.5 team goals | 1.81 | 51.6% | -3.5 pts |
| Fiorentina over 1.5 team goals | 3.80 | 24.6% | +2.7 pts |
| AS Roma clean sheet | 2.37 | 39.3% | -3.9 pts |
| Fiorentina clean sheet | 4.88 | 19.2% | +1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.40 · 1-1 6.82 · 2-0 7.58 · 2-1 7.72 · 0-0 9.99
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-24 20:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May 26 | AS Roma | 4-0 | Fiorentina |
| 05 Oct 25 | Fiorentina | 1-2 | AS Roma |