AC Milan 2–0 Venezia
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 2.13–0.69.
The brain read
AC Milan created the better chances — the xG read 2.1–0.7 and the shot count agreed (16–8, 5–2 on target). AC Milan got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 6). On the balance of chances, the 2–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
AC Milan 3-4-2-1
- 5 Koni De Winter (D)
- 8 Ruben Loftus-Cheek (F)
- 9 Gonçalo Ramos (F)
- 14 Luka Modrić (M)
- 16 Mike Maignan (G)
- 21 Samuel Chukwueze (M)
- 31 Strahinja Pavlović (D)
- 33 Davide Bartesaghi (M)
- 34 Mario Gila (D)
- 70 Alphadjo Cissè (F)
- 80 Yunus Musah (M)
Bench: Lorenzo Torriani, Pietro Terracciano, Sankhoun Diawara, Filippo Terracciano, Matteo Gabbia, Pervis Estupiñán, Ardon Jashari, Christian Comotto, Diego Moreira, Alexis Saelemaekers, Adrien Rabiot, Francesco Camarda, Christian Pulišić
Venezia 3-5-2
- 1 Filip Stanković (G)
- 3 Joel Schingtienne (D)
- 4 Bartol Franjić (D)
- 5 Ridgeciano Haps (M)
- 6 Gianluca Busio (M)
- 10 John Yeboah (F)
- 17 Armel Bella-Kotchap (D)
- 18 Antoine Hainaut (M)
- 26 Toma Bašić (M)
- 45 Akor Adams (F)
- 71 Kike Pérez (M)
Bench: Matteo Grandi, Lorenzo Montipò, Thierry Correia, Ale Gomes, Redouane Halhal, Matteo Dagasso, Lamine Fanne, Marko Farji, Richie Sagrado, Simone Panada, Simon Sohm, Þórir Jóhann Helgason, Alvin Obinna Okoro, Albion Rrahmani, Lion Lauberbach
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance AC Milan or draw | 1.10 | 85.6% | -2.9 pts |
| Double chance Venezia or draw | 2.70 | 34.9% | +4.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.19 | 79.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — AC Milan | 1.15 | 81.3% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Venezia | 4.99 | 18.7% | +4.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.21 | 77.9% | +3.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.71 | 55.8% | +4.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.74 | 34.4% | +3.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 | 50.5% | +7.9 pts |
| AC Milan over 1.5 team goals | 1.52 | 61.3% | +0.1 pts |
| Venezia over 1.5 team goals | 4.22 | 22.2% | +6.8 pts |
| AC Milan clean sheet | 2.02 | 46.1% | -5.8 pts |
| Venezia clean sheet | 6.62 | 14.1% | -0.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 6.88 · 1-0 6.93 · 2-1 7.64 · 1-1 8.11 · 3-0 9.74
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-28 21:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).