Cremonese 0–3 Modena
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–3; by chance quality the match ran 0.37–0.58.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.4–0.6, shots 7–10 with 2–3 on target. Modena's finishing ran hot — 3 from 0.6 xG, 3 of 10 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–3 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Cremonese or draw | 1.26 | 74.4% | -4.0 pts |
| Double chance Modena or draw | 1.70 | 55.0% | +5.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 70.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Cremonese | 1.47 | 63.4% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Modena | 2.54 | 36.6% | +6.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.41 | 66.5% | +1.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.29 | 41.3% | +1.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.23 | 22.2% | +1.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.97 | 47.1% | +3.0 pts |
| Cremonese over 1.5 team goals | 2.37 | 39.5% | -2.7 pts |
| Modena over 1.5 team goals | 3.57 | 26.1% | +4.3 pts |
| Cremonese clean sheet | 2.10 | 44.3% | -2.1 pts |
| Modena clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.72 · 1-0 5.81 · 0-0 7.04 · 0-1 8.40 · 2-1 8.58
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-28 20:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).