FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Serie B · Fri 28 Aug 2026, 19:30 UTC

Cremonese 03 Modena

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What the chances were worth

Cremonese
0.37
expected goals (xG)
Modena
0.58
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 0–3; by chance quality the match ran 0.37–0.58.

The brain read

Little between them on chances created — the xG read 0.4–0.6, shots 7–10 with 2–3 on target. Modena's finishing ran hot — 3 from 0.6 xG, 3 of 10 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 0–3 suggests.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Cremonese
Modena
49%
Ball Possession
51%
7
Total Shots
10
2
Shots on Goal
3
3
Shots off Goal
5
2
Blocked Shots
2
5
Shots inside box
4
2
Shots outside box
6
0.37
Expected goals (xG)
0.58
5
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
9
440
Total passes
467
380
Passes accurate
408
86%
Passes %
87%
13
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
1
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
0.15
Goals prevented
0.15

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Cremonese
44%
market implied · price 2.11 · opened 50%
Draw
30%
market implied · price 3.10 · opened 29%
Modena
26%
market implied · price 3.64 · opened 21%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Cremonese or draw1.2674.4%-4.0 pts
Double chance Modena or draw1.7055.0%+5.1 pts
Double chance either team1.3370.6%-1.1 pts
Draw no bet — Cremonese1.4763.4%-6.7 pts
Draw no bet — Modena2.5436.6%+6.7 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.4166.5%+1.9 pts
Over 2.5 goals2.2941.3%+1.7 pts
Over 3.5 goals4.2322.2%+1.6 pts
Both teams to score1.9747.1%+3.0 pts
Cremonese over 1.5 team goals2.3739.5%-2.7 pts
Modena over 1.5 team goals3.5726.1%+4.3 pts
Cremonese clean sheet2.1044.3%-2.1 pts
Modena clean sheet3.7525.0%+0.0 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.72 · 1-0 5.81 · 0-0 7.04 · 0-1 8.40 · 2-1 8.58

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-28 20:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.