Lille 2–2 Paris Saint Germain
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.09–1.19.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Paris Saint Germain to win (36%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 28% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.1–1.2, shots 9–18 with 4–4 on target. Paris Saint Germain held 73% of the ball. Lille's finishing ran hot — 2 from 1.1 xG, 4 of 9 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 2–2 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Lille 4-2-3-1
- 1 Berke Özer (G)
- 3 Nathan Ngoy (D)
- 4 Alexsandro Ribeiro (D)
- 6 Nabil Bentaleb (M)
- 8 Ethan Mbappé (M)
- 9 Olivier Giroud (F)
- 10 Hakon Arnar Haraldsson (M)
- 15 Romain Perraud (D)
- 21 Benjamin André (M)
- 22 Tiago Santos (D)
- 27 Félix Correia (M)
Bench: Arnaud Bodart, Isaac Cossier, Calvin Verdonk, Ngal'ayel Mukau, Başar Önal, Dilane Bakwa, Osame Sahraoui, Gaëtan Perrin, Soriba Diaoune
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3
- 2 Achraf Hakimi (D)
- 4 Lucas Beraldo (D)
- 5 Marquinhos (D)
- 8 Fabián Ruiz (M)
- 9 Ferran Torres (F)
- 11 Maghnes Akliouche (F)
- 14 Désiré Doué (F)
- 17 Vitinha (M)
- 33 Warren Zaïre-Emery (M)
- 39 Matvey Safonov (G)
- 51 Willian Pacho (D)
Bench: Alessandro Longoni, Lucas Chevalier, Lucas Hernández, Lucas Digne, Ilya Zabarnyi, Dro Fernández, Senny Mayulu, Mika Godts, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lille or draw | 2.19 | 43.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Double chance Paris Saint Germain or draw | 1.17 | 80.3% | +2.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.23 | 76.7% | +0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lille | 3.58 | 25.9% | -3.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Paris Saint Germain | 1.25 | 74.1% | +3.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 78.5% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 56.5% | +1.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.65 | 35.5% | +1.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | 55.9% | -0.0 pts |
| Lille over 1.5 team goals | 3.28 | 28.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Paris Saint Germain over 1.5 team goals | 1.64 | 57.1% | +2.3 pts |
| Lille clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.0% | -0.8 pts |
| Paris Saint Germain clean sheet | 2.52 | 36.9% | +1.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.06 · 1-2 7.48 · 0-1 7.63 · 0-2 8.30 · 1-3 11.48
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-28 21:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jan 26 | Paris Saint Germain | 3-0 | Lille |
| 05 Oct 25 | Lille | 1-1 | Paris Saint Germain |