FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · 2. Bundesliga · Fri 28 Aug 2026, 17:30 UTC

VfL Bochum 01 VfL Osnabrück

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What the chances were worth

VfL Bochum
1.39
expected goals (xG)
VfL Osnabrück
0.42
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 0–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.39–0.42.

The brain read

VfL Bochum created the better chances — the xG read 1.4–0.4 and the shot count agreed (19–8, 1–2 on target). VfL Bochum got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 4) and VfL Bochum held 65% of the ball. VfL Bochum's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.4 xG despite 1 of 19 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 0–1 flatters VfL Osnabrück — on chances created, VfL Bochum shaded it.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

VfL Bochum
VfL Osnabrück
65%
Ball Possession
35%
19
Total Shots
8
1
Shots on Goal
2
8
Shots off Goal
3
10
Blocked Shots
3
11
Shots inside box
4
8
Shots outside box
4
1.39
Expected goals (xG)
0.42
5
Corner Kicks
1
0
Offsides
3
628
Total passes
341
542
Passes accurate
244
86%
Passes %
72%
14
Fouls
10
2
Yellow Cards
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
0.03
Goals prevented
0.03

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

VfL Bochum
54%
market implied · price 1.75 · opened 57%
Draw
25%
market implied · price 3.83 · opened 24%
VfL Osnabrück
22%
market implied · price 4.35 · opened 19%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance VfL Bochum or draw1.2078.2%-2.0 pts
Double chance VfL Osnabrück or draw2.0445.9%+3.0 pts
Double chance either team1.2375.9%-1.0 pts
Draw no bet — VfL Bochum1.3071.1%-3.1 pts
Draw no bet — VfL Osnabrück3.2128.9%+3.1 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.1978.1%+1.2 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.6756.4%+1.3 pts
Over 3.5 goals2.6235.6%+1.3 pts
Both teams to score1.6257.0%+2.3 pts
VfL Bochum over 1.5 team goals1.6855.7%-0.8 pts
VfL Osnabrück over 1.5 team goals3.0131.0%+3.0 pts
VfL Bochum clean sheet2.7533.7%-3.8 pts
VfL Osnabrück clean sheet5.5017.2%+1.4 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.00 · 2-1 7.57 · 1-0 7.88 · 2-0 8.76 · 3-1 11.97

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-28 18:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.