Wrexham 1–2 Birmingham
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.42–1.85.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Wrexham to win (37%); it finished with Birmingham to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 33% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Birmingham created the better chances — the xG read 1.4–1.9, with the shot count roughly even (9–10, 4–4 on target). On the balance of chances, the 1–2 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Wrexham or draw | 1.32 | 70.9% | +3.1 pts |
| Double chance Birmingham or draw | 1.62 | 57.7% | -3.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.4% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Wrexham | 1.59 | 58.6% | +4.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Birmingham | 2.25 | 41.4% | -4.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.37 | 68.5% | -2.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.15 | 44.1% | -3.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.85 | 24.3% | -3.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.87 | 49.9% | -3.7 pts |
| Wrexham over 1.5 team goals | 2.34 | 39.8% | -0.1 pts |
| Birmingham over 1.5 team goals | 3.14 | 29.7% | -5.5 pts |
| Wrexham clean sheet | 2.86 | 32.6% | +2.8 pts |
| Birmingham clean sheet | 3.42 | 27.2% | +1.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.84 · 1-0 6.62 · 0-0 7.99 · 0-1 8.40 · 2-1 8.59
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-28 21:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Apr 26 | Birmingham | 2-0 | Wrexham |
| 03 Oct 25 | Wrexham | 1-1 | Birmingham |