1. FC Köln 3–2 1899 Hoffenheim
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.95–1.88.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 41% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.9–1.9, shots 18–15 with 6–4 on target. 1. FC Köln got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 8). 1. FC Köln's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.9 xG, 6 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
1. FC Köln 4-3-3
- 1 M. Schwäbe (G)
- 5 T. Krauß (M)
- 8 Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson (M)
- 9 R. Ache (F)
- 10 S. El Mala (M)
- 14 G. Mensah (D)
- 17 A. Castro-Montes (M)
- 22 Jahmai Simpson-Pusey (D)
- 23 Paul Michael Junior Okon-Engstler (M)
- 24 L. Lochoshvili (D)
- 29 J. Thielmann (F)
Bench: M. Bülter, T. Dallinga, Reigan Heskey, L. Maina, J. Schmied, E. Skhiri, R. van den Berg, R. Zieler
1899 Hoffenheim 4-2-2-2
- 1 O. Baumann (G)
- 5 O. Kabak (D)
- 7 L. Avdullahu (M)
- 8 P. Wimmer (M)
- 10 A. Hložek (F)
- 13 Bernardo (D)
- 14 A. Daghim (F)
- 18 W. Burger (M)
- 20 B. Conté (F)
- 21 A. Hajdari (D)
- 34 V. Coufal (D)
Bench: Max Moerstedt, L. Philipp, M. Rots, Cajetan Benjamin Lenz, A. Kramarić, R. Hranáč, V. Gendrey, Nathan De Cat
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance 1. FC Köln or draw | 1.63 | 58.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Double chance 1899 Hoffenheim or draw | 1.40 | 67.9% | +0.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 74.0% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1. FC Köln | 2.15 | 43.4% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.64 | 56.6% | +0.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 81.8% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 61.7% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.31 | 41.2% | +1.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.45 | 64.2% | +0.7 pts |
| 1. FC Köln over 1.5 team goals | 2.12 | 44.3% | +0.5 pts |
| 1899 Hoffenheim over 1.5 team goals | 1.81 | 51.8% | +1.4 pts |
| 1. FC Köln clean sheet | 5.00 | 19.0% | -0.8 pts |
| 1899 Hoffenheim clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -0.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.11 · 1-2 8.64 · 2-1 10.00 · 2-2 10.22 · 0-1 10.88
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 15:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Feb 26 | 1. FC Köln | 2-2 | 1899 Hoffenheim |
| 03 Oct 25 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 0-1 | 1. FC Köln |