Ascoli 1–1 Carrarese
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.58–1.83.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.6–1.8, shots 19–18 with 6–4 on target. Ascoli got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 12) and Ascoli held 72% of the ball. Carrarese's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.8 xG despite 4 of 18 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Ascoli or draw | 1.22 | 76.8% | +0.1 pts |
| Double chance Carrarese or draw | 1.86 | 50.4% | -1.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 72.7% | +1.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Ascoli | 1.36 | 67.8% | +1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Carrarese | 2.86 | 32.2% | -1.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.32 | 70.9% | +5.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.03 | 46.6% | +6.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.61 | 26.0% | +5.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | 50.9% | +5.2 pts |
| Ascoli over 1.5 team goals | 2.02 | 46.2% | +5.1 pts |
| Carrarese over 1.5 team goals | 3.48 | 26.7% | +3.3 pts |
| Ascoli clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | -4.9 pts |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | -3.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.14 · 1-0 6.58 · 2-1 7.97 · 2-0 8.48 · 0-0 8.89
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).