Auxerre 1–3 Angers
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.29–1.64.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Auxerre to win (46%); it finished with Angers to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.3–1.6, shots 19–15 with 7–6 on target. Angers's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.6 xG, 6 of 15 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–3 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Auxerre 4-3-3
- 3 R. Labeau Lascary (F)
- 5 K. Danois (M)
- 8 N. Ahamada (M)
- 10 D. Namaso (F)
- 20 S. Diomandé (D)
- 21 R. Faivre (F)
- 23 M. Diop (G)
- 27 L. Sy (D)
- 35 E. Legros (D)
- 46 A. Piedfort (M)
- 92 C. Akpa (D)
Bench: L. Dioubate, J. Casimir, T. Bair, P. Ekwah, R. Mandengue, P. Nardi, F. Oppegård, T. Siwe, Aristide Zossou
Angers 4-2-3-1
- 1 Anthony Lopes (G)
- 2 C. Arcus (D)
- 4 O. Camara (D)
- 8 B. van den Boomen (M)
- 10 A. Sbaï (M)
- 14 Y. Belkhdim (M)
- 17 J. Kalulu (D)
- 18 J. Allevinah (M)
- 19 A. El Ouazzani (F)
- 21 J. Lefort (D)
- 26 A. Bermont (M)
Bench: E. Biumla, Bane Diatta, Djibirin Harouna, M. Gernigon, Marius Louër, P. Peter, Oumar Pona
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Auxerre or draw | 1.27 | 74.3% | -2.2 pts |
| Double chance Angers or draw | 1.77 | 53.4% | +3.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 72.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Auxerre | 1.43 | 64.6% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Angers | 2.62 | 35.4% | +2.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 71.0% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.03 | 47.0% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.50 | 26.9% | +1.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.81 | 51.4% | +1.7 pts |
| Auxerre over 1.5 team goals | 2.10 | 44.7% | -0.5 pts |
| Angers over 1.5 team goals | 3.24 | 28.9% | +2.6 pts |
| Auxerre clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | -2.5 pts |
| Angers clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.02 · 1-0 6.66 · 2-1 8.18 · 0-0 8.72 · 2-0 9.22
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May 26 | Auxerre | 3-1 | Angers |
| 09 Nov 25 | Angers | 2-0 | Auxerre |