Avellino 3–0 Vicenza Virtus
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.41–1.14.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.4–1.1, shots 10–17 with 8–2 on target. Vicenza Virtus got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 5). Avellino's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.4 xG, 8 of 10 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 3–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Avellino 4-3-1-2
- 4 A. Izzo (D)
- 6 L. Palmiero (M)
- 10 R. Russo (F)
- 20 M. Palumbo (M)
- 27 B. Moruzzi (M)
- 29 T. Cancellotti (D)
- 39 M. Besaggio (M)
- 44 L. Šimić (D)
- 50 T. Martinelli (G)
- 56 P. Enrici (D)
- 99 A. Favilli (F)
Bench: W. Cheddira, T. Biasci, G. Faticanti, A. Fontanarosa, A. Iannarilli, M. Sala, D. Sounas, M. Venturi, Thomas Berenbruch
Vicenza Virtus 3-5-2
- 4 M. Carraro (M)
- 5 R. Marchizza (D)
- 6 M. Leverbe (D)
- 11 G. Moncini (F)
- 14 G. Cuomo (D)
- 24 Filippo Alessio (F)
- 29 L. Zonta (M)
- 32 F. Costa (M)
- 99 A. Pietrelli (M)
Bench: E. Tantalocchi, T. Sandon, N. Rauti, C. Morra, S. Massolo, T. Corazza, N. Brighenti
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Avellino or draw | 1.32 | 71.1% | +3.4 pts |
| Double chance Vicenza Virtus or draw | 1.57 | 59.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.36 | 69.2% | -1.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Avellino | 1.60 | 57.9% | +3.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Vicenza Virtus | 2.20 | 42.1% | -3.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.38 | 67.8% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.21 | 42.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.99 | 23.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.87 | 49.7% | -0.0 pts |
| Avellino over 1.5 team goals | 2.45 | 38.1% | +1.7 pts |
| Vicenza Virtus over 1.5 team goals | 3.11 | 29.9% | -2.4 pts |
| Avellino clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +1.7 pts |
| Vicenza Virtus clean sheet | 3.40 | 27.7% | -1.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.67 · 1-0 6.66 · 0-0 7.36 · 0-1 8.16 · 2-1 8.84
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).