FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Championship · Sat 29 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC

Blackburn 12 QPR

← Back to the board

What the chances were worth

Blackburn
0.92
expected goals (xG)
QPR
1.34
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 0.92–1.34.

What the model expected

Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.

Blackburn
39%
Draw
30%
QPR
31%

Before kick-off the model favoured Blackburn to win (39%); it finished with QPR to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 31% beforehand.

One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.

The brain read

QPR created the better chances — the xG read 0.9–1.3 and the shot count agreed (12–19, 2–6 on target). QPR got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 7). On the balance of chances, the 1–2 reads fair.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Blackburn
QPR
54%
Ball Possession
46%
12
Total Shots
19
2
Shots on Goal
6
6
Shots off Goal
7
4
Blocked Shots
6
7
Shots inside box
11
5
Shots outside box
8
3
Corner Kicks
3
1
Offsides
0
521
Total passes
439
450
Passes accurate
372
12
Fouls
6
3
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
5
Free Kicks
12

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Blackburn
38%
market implied · price 2.48 · opened 41%
Draw
28%
market implied · price 3.35 · opened 28%
QPR
34%
market implied · price 2.81 · opened 30%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Blackburn or draw1.4266.4%-3.1 pts
Double chance QPR or draw1.5261.8%+3.1 pts
Double chance either team1.3171.9%+0.0 pts
Draw no bet — Blackburn1.7453.3%-4.3 pts
Draw no bet — QPR1.9946.7%+4.3 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.3072.1%+1.3 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.9548.6%+1.8 pts
Over 3.5 goals3.3428.0%+1.5 pts
Both teams to score1.7253.9%+1.7 pts
Blackburn over 1.5 team goals2.3539.9%-1.2 pts
QPR over 1.5 team goals2.6036.0%+3.3 pts
Blackburn clean sheet3.2529.0%-4.3 pts
QPR clean sheet3.4027.7%+2.1 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.99 · 1-0 7.88 · 0-1 8.65 · 2-1 9.06 · 0-0 9.46

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 16:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.

Head to head

DateHomeScoreAway
14 Feb 26QPR1-3Blackburn
26 Nov 25Blackburn0-1QPR