Bournemouth 1–1 Everton
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.16–1.84.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Bournemouth to win (49%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 26% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 2.2–1.8, shots 17–13 with 5–7 on target. Bournemouth got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 7). Bournemouth's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.2 xG despite 5 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bournemouth or draw | 1.30 | 72.6% | -0.5 pts |
| Double chance Everton or draw | 1.70 | 55.3% | +1.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.2% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bournemouth | 1.49 | 62.2% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Everton | 2.45 | 37.8% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | 73.5% | -0.7 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 49.7% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.31 | 28.8% | -1.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.72 | 54.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Bournemouth over 1.5 team goals | 2.01 | 46.6% | -0.4 pts |
| Everton over 1.5 team goals | 2.78 | 33.7% | +1.0 pts |
| Bournemouth clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -4.7 pts |
| Everton clean sheet | 4.33 | 21.7% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.21 · 1-0 7.82 · 2-1 8.28 · 2-0 10.25 · 0-1 10.32
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb 26 | Everton | 1-2 | Bournemouth |
| 02 Dec 25 | Bournemouth | 0-1 | Everton |