Bristol City 2–1 Portsmouth
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.61–1.37.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Bristol City to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 38% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Portsmouth created the better chances — the xG read 0.6–1.4, with the shot count roughly even (9–14, 3–1 on target). Bristol City's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.6 xG, 3 of 9 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 2–1 flatters Bristol City — on chances created, Portsmouth shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Bristol City or draw | 1.33 | 71.1% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance Portsmouth or draw | 1.65 | 57.0% | +0.7 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.9% | +0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bristol City | 1.56 | 59.3% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Portsmouth | 2.28 | 40.7% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 71.3% | +1.5 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 47.0% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.45 | 27.1% | +1.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.78 | 52.2% | +1.0 pts |
| Bristol City over 1.5 team goals | 2.22 | 42.0% | +0.4 pts |
| Portsmouth over 1.5 team goals | 2.95 | 31.7% | +1.4 pts |
| Bristol City clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | -1.4 pts |
| Portsmouth clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -0.5 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.02 · 1-0 7.14 · 2-1 8.42 · 0-0 8.73 · 0-1 9.07
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jan 26 | Bristol City | 5-0 | Portsmouth |
| 29 Nov 25 | Portsmouth | 0-1 | Bristol City |