Charlton 1–0 Preston
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 0.74–1.32.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Charlton to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 38% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Preston created the better chances — the xG read 0.7–1.3, with the shot count roughly even (15–12, 2–1 on target). Preston's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.3 xG despite 1 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 1–0 flatters Charlton — on chances created, Preston shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Charlton or draw | 1.27 | 73.8% | +2.1 pts |
| Double chance Preston or draw | 1.71 | 55.0% | -2.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.32 | 71.2% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Charlton | 1.46 | 63.0% | +3.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Preston | 2.49 | 37.0% | -3.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.35 | 69.4% | +0.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.13 | 44.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.83 | 24.5% | +0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.84 | 50.3% | +0.2 pts |
| Charlton over 1.5 team goals | 2.23 | 42.0% | +1.6 pts |
| Preston over 1.5 team goals | 3.26 | 28.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Charlton clean sheet | 2.50 | 37.5% | +2.2 pts |
| Preston clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -2.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.93 · 1-0 6.57 · 0-0 8.30 · 2-1 8.34 · 0-1 9.00
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 26 | Charlton | 1-2 | Preston |
| 04 Oct 25 | Preston | 2-0 | Charlton |