FSV Mainz 05 0–0 SC Paderborn 07
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 0–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.23–0.73.
The brain read
FSV Mainz 05 created the better chances — the xG read 1.2–0.7 and the shot count agreed (22–10, 4–0 on target). FSV Mainz 05 got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 6). FSV Mainz 05's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.2 xG despite 4 of 22 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created FSV Mainz 05 shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
FSV Mainz 05 3-1-4-2
- 2 P. Mwene (M)
- 3 F. Gruber (D)
- 6 K. Sano (M)
- 7 Lee Jae-Sung (M)
- 9 P. Tietz (F)
- 10 N. Amiri (M)
- 19 A. Caci (M)
- 21 D. da Costa (D)
- 23 S. Becker (F)
- 27 R. Zentner (G)
- 31 D. Kohr (D)
Bench: S. Kawasaki, R. Königsdörffer, L. Maloney, R. Nakuzola, S. Posch, K. Potulski, O. Ruoppi, A. Schwolow, S. Widmer
SC Paderborn 07 3-4-3
- 5 S. Castañeda (M)
- 15 N. Noll (G)
- 17 L. Curda (M)
- 18 M. Pieringer (F)
- 21 J. ter Horst (D)
- 22 M. Hansen (D)
- 23 R. Obermair (M)
- 25 T. Scheller (D)
- 28 L. Ulrich (M)
- 30 S. Marino (F)
- 40 G. Vidović (F)
Bench: T. Baack, O. Batista Meier, L. Đurić, C. Lippmann, M. Schubert, S. Tigges, D. Zeitler, N. Mohr
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance FSV Mainz 05 or draw | 1.15 | 82.9% | +3.3 pts |
| Double chance SC Paderborn 07 or draw | 2.49 | 38.1% | -5.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.20 | 79.0% | +2.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — FSV Mainz 05 | 1.20 | 77.6% | +5.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — SC Paderborn 07 | 4.13 | 22.4% | -5.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 82.0% | +4.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.51 | 62.2% | +5.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 41.1% | +5.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.61 | 58.1% | +2.0 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 over 1.5 team goals | 1.47 | 63.7% | +7.1 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 over 1.5 team goals | 3.24 | 28.9% | -0.3 pts |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.3 pts |
| SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet | 8.00 | 11.9% | -4.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-1 7.72 · 1-1 8.40 · 2-0 8.53 · 1-0 8.95 · 3-1 10.65
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 15:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).