Guingamp 3–3 Nantes
What the chances were worth
The brain read
Nantes carried the greater threat — shots 14–20, 7–6 on target, 5–11 from inside the box. Match xG wasn't available for this game, so this read is built on the shot picture only.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Guingamp 4-4-2
- 3 J. Matumona (D)
- 4 D. Louiserre (M)
- 7 D. Gomis (D)
- 8 F. Da Silva (M)
- 11 T. Averlant (M)
- 16 Adrián Ortolá (G)
- 18 S. Kielt (F)
- 20 S. Ben Brahim (M)
- 21 T. Ahile (F)
- 36 A. Demouchy (D)
- 39 V. Muntu Wa Mungu (D)
Bench: T. Bartouche, J. Dianganga, T. Ducrocq, E. Koffi, T. Ollila, N. Fondja, J. Chamakh, E. Aucan, A. Samoura
Nantes 4-1-4-1
- 1 M. Dupé (G)
- 4 S. Sow (D)
- 5 L. Perrin (D)
- 8 J. Lepenant (M)
- 11 Bahereba Guirassy (M)
- 17 D. Assoumani (M)
- 20 M. Cafaro (F)
- 23 W. Younoussa (M)
- 24 F. Guilbert (D)
- 28 I. Sissoko (M)
- 98 K. Amian (D)
Bench: Sacha Ziani, T. Tati, A. Mirbach, Louis Leroux, A. Joujou, Diockoumalang Gomes, B. Deuff
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Guingamp or draw | 1.49 | 62.6% | +3.4 pts |
| Double chance Nantes or draw | 1.42 | 65.8% | -2.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 71.7% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw no bet — Guingamp | 1.94 | 48.1% | +4.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Nantes | 1.80 | 51.9% | -4.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.4% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 49.4% | -1.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.27 | 28.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.69 | 54.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Guingamp over 1.5 team goals | 2.47 | 37.8% | +1.7 pts |
| Nantes over 1.5 team goals | 2.33 | 40.1% | -3.2 pts |
| Guingamp clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Nantes clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.93 · 0-1 8.20 · 1-0 8.58 · 1-2 9.02 · 2-1 9.45
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 20:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).