FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · La Liga 2 · Sat 29 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC

Leganes 10 Eldense

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What the chances were worth

Leganes
1.63
expected goals (xG)
Eldense
1.01
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.63–1.01.

The brain read

Leganes created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–1, with the shot count roughly even (11–16, 6–4 on target). Eldense's finishing let them down — 0 from 1 xG despite 4 of 16 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 1–0 reads fair.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Leganes
Eldense
52%
Ball Possession
48%
11
Total Shots
16
6
Shots on Goal
4
3
Shots off Goal
6
2
Blocked Shots
6
9
Shots inside box
9
2
Shots outside box
7
0
Corner Kicks
8
2
Offsides
2
501
Total passes
449
428
Passes accurate
362
13
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
9
Free Kicks
13

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Leganes
50%
market implied · price 1.89 · opened 46%
Draw
27%
market implied · price 3.42 · opened 28%
Eldense
23%
market implied · price 4.04 · opened 26%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Leganes or draw1.2376.4%+3.0 pts
Double chance Eldense or draw1.8650.4%-3.2 pts
Double chance either team1.2873.2%+0.3 pts
Draw no bet — Leganes1.3767.4%+4.5 pts
Draw no bet — Eldense2.8332.6%-4.5 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.3270.5%-1.1 pts
Over 2.5 goals2.0545.9%-1.8 pts
Over 3.5 goals3.6425.6%-1.8 pts
Both teams to score1.8550.0%-2.4 pts
Leganes over 1.5 team goals2.0445.7%+0.7 pts
Eldense over 1.5 team goals3.4926.6%-3.3 pts
Leganes clean sheet2.3839.1%+5.4 pts
Eldense clean sheet4.0023.4%-1.6 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.04 · 1-1 6.10 · 2-1 7.87 · 2-0 7.89 · 0-0 8.36

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 19:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.