Levante 5–2 Real Betis
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 5–2; by chance quality the match ran 2.76–1.92.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Levante to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 44% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Levante created the better chances — the xG read 2.8–1.9 and the shot count agreed (19–20, 10–6 on target). Levante's finishing ran hot — 5 from 2.8 xG, 10 of 19 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 5–2 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Levante 4-1-4-1
- 2 A. Mandi (D)
- 4 Dela (D)
- 7 Brugui (M)
- 8 Jon Ander Olasagasti (M)
- 9 Iván Romero (F)
- 13 M. Ryan (G)
- 18 E. Bardeli (M)
- 20 Oriol Rey (M)
- 23 Manu Sánchez (D)
- 24 T. Fernández (M)
Bench: Jorge Cabello, J. Toljan, Carlos Álvarez, Paco Cortés, Pablo Cuñat, Etta Eyong, Víctor García, Yanis Musuayi, IfeanyiIfeanyi Ndukwe, Reque, Hugo Sotelo
Real Betis 4-2-3-1
- 1 Álvaro Vallés (G)
- 2 Héctor Bellerín (D)
- 4 Natan (D)
- 5 Marc Bartra (D)
- 6 F. Bernal (M)
- 7 Antony (M)
- 11 Fran García (D)
- 17 Rodrigo Riquelme (M)
- 19 T. Parrott (F)
- 21 Marc Roca (M)
- 22 Isco (M)
Bench: A. Ezzalzouli, Álvaro Fidalgo, Pablo Fornals, Pablo García, V. Gómez, Manu González, C. Hernández, Diego Llorente, Iker Losada, Ángel Ortiz, N. Deossa, A. de Pablo
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Levante or draw | 1.63 | 58.0% | +0.8 pts |
| Double chance Real Betis or draw | 1.34 | 70.8% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.33 | 71.2% | -1.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Levante | 2.27 | 40.9% | -0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Real Betis | 1.57 | 59.1% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 73.8% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 50.1% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.15 | 29.9% | +1.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.68 | 55.4% | +0.8 pts |
| Levante over 1.5 team goals | 2.70 | 34.6% | +1.3 pts |
| Real Betis over 1.5 team goals | 2.12 | 44.2% | +0.4 pts |
| Levante clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Real Betis clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -2.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.11 · 0-1 7.94 · 1-2 8.55 · 1-0 10.10 · 2-1 10.50
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 17:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 May 26 | Real Betis | 2-1 | Levante |
| 14 Sep 25 | Levante | 2-2 | Real Betis |