Lorient 1–2 Estac Troyes
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.15–2.12.
The brain read
The xG read 1.1–2.1 in Estac Troyes's favour, but the shot count told the opposite story — 14–11 overall and 5–2 on target went Lorient's way. The two pictures disagree, and aggregate counts can't see the quality of individual chances — so this reads closer than either number alone suggests. Lorient held 67% of the ball.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Lorient 3-4-2-1
- 3 M. Talbi (D)
- 8 N. Cadiou (M)
- 11 T. Le Bris (M)
- 17 J. Makengo (M)
- 20 D. Sylla (D)
- 32 N. Adjei (D)
- 33 G. Bernardeau (M)
- 38 Y. Mvogo (G)
- 43 K. Kouassi (M)
- 62 A. Avom (M)
Bench: S. Touré, A. Tosin, N. Obaretin, N. Mbamba, P. Katseris, B. Kamara, I. Jensen, A. Georgen, S. Faye
Estac Troyes 4-3-3
- 2 L. Maronnier (D)
- 3 A. Ouzenadji (D)
- 4 M. Diaz (D)
- 6 A. Monfray (D)
- 8 M. Diop (M)
- 10 M. Ifnaoui (F)
- 11 I. Gomis (M)
- 17 A. Mille (F)
- 20 R. Ripart (F)
- 22 H. Picard (M)
- 33 P. Beach (G)
Bench: K. Diawara, P. Gozzi, D. Karim, H. Konaté, A. Phliponeau, I. Soukouna
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lorient or draw | 1.22 | 77.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Double chance Estac Troyes or draw | 1.92 | 49.1% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 73.3% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lorient | 1.35 | 69.0% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Estac Troyes | 3.00 | 31.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 70.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.07 | 46.1% | -1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.69 | 25.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.88 | 49.6% | -0.9 pts |
| Lorient over 1.5 team goals | 2.02 | 46.4% | -1.4 pts |
| Estac Troyes over 1.5 team goals | 3.66 | 25.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Lorient clean sheet | 2.38 | 39.1% | +1.2 pts |
| Estac Troyes clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +1.6 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 6.05 · 1-1 6.35 · 2-1 7.89 · 2-0 8.10 · 0-0 8.74
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).