Lyon 1–1 Le Havre
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.61–0.66.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Lyon to win (50%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Lyon created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–0.7 and the shot count agreed (13–12, 5–4 on target). Lyon got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 8). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Lyon shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Lyon 4-2-3-1
- 1 D. Greif (G)
- 2 M. Bidstrup (M)
- 3 N. Tagliafico (D)
- 7 E. Nuamah (M)
- 8 C. Tolisso (M)
- 13 Z. Athekame (D)
- 17 L. Openda (F)
- 19 M. Niakhaté (D)
- 20 F. Bacher (D)
- 23 T. Morton (M)
- 26 K. Boudache (M)
Bench: A. Maitland-Niles, M. Fofana, R. Descamps, Clinton Mata, K. Merah, T. Tessmann, N. Nartey, Abner, P. Šulc
Le Havre 3-4-2-1
- 5 A. Touba (D)
- 6 J. Mwanga (M)
- 7 A. Richardson (M)
- 14 R. Ndiaye (M)
- 15 A. Seko (D)
- 17 K. Mizuta (M)
- 25 M. Samatta (F)
- 26 S. Ebonog (M)
- 32 T. Pembélé (D)
- 77 L. Mpasi (G)
Bench: V. Sasso, I. Bouneb, F. Doucouré, J. Maja, G. Gallon, E. Jelert, E. Koffi Vinette, D. Mosengo, S. Nakamura
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lyon or draw | 1.12 | 84.9% | -0.4 pts |
| Double chance Le Havre or draw | 2.67 | 35.5% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.19 | 79.6% | +0.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lyon | 1.15 | 80.9% | -0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Le Havre | 4.88 | 19.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 77.2% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 54.6% | +0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.79 | 33.7% | +0.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.87 | 49.8% | +0.1 pts |
| Lyon over 1.5 team goals | 1.55 | 60.4% | +0.5 pts |
| Le Havre over 1.5 team goals | 4.31 | 21.7% | +0.2 pts |
| Lyon clean sheet | 2.10 | 44.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Le Havre clean sheet | 6.50 | 14.6% | +0.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 2-0 6.63 · 1-0 6.68 · 2-1 7.65 · 1-1 7.94 · 3-0 9.79
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Mar 26 | Le Havre | 0-0 | Lyon |
| 14 Dec 25 | Lyon | 1-0 | Le Havre |