Monza 2–3 Udinese
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.70–0.98.
The brain read
Monza created the better chances — the xG read 1.7–1, with the shot count roughly even (15–12, 5–5 on target). Udinese's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1 xG, 5 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 2–3 flatters Udinese — on chances created, Monza shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Monza
- 3 L. Lucchesi (D)
- 7 Ricardo Mangas (D)
- 8 M. Ondoa (M)
- 9 Gustavo Varela (F)
- 10 P. Cutrone (F)
- 19 S. Birindelli (D)
- 20 D. Thiam (G)
- 28 A. Colpani (M)
- 44 A. Carboni (D)
- 60 E. Kouadio (D)
Bench: Jay Robinson, E. Akinsanmiro, Dany Mota, Y. Maye, O. Forson, M. Folorunsho, F. Delli Carri, L. Colombo, A. Bakoune, V. Antov
Udinese
- 8 J. Karlström (M)
- 9 K. Davis (F)
- 11 H. Kamara (D)
- 14 J. Abankwah (D)
- 23 M. Vojvoda (D)
- 24 J. Piotrowski (M)
- 28 O. Solet (D)
- 32 J. Ekkelenkamp (M)
- 40 M. Okoye (G)
- 46 Unai Gómez (M)
- 77 E. Ebosse (D)
Bench: Oier Zarraga, J. Arizala, N. Bertola, S. Goglichidze, I. Gueye, S. Lovrić, L. Miller, B. Mrozek, D. Padelli, D. Pejičić, G. Vinciati
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Monza or draw | 1.53 | 62.0% | +4.0 pts |
| Double chance Udinese or draw | 1.37 | 68.9% | -2.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.37 | 69.1% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Monza | 2.06 | 45.0% | +4.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Udinese | 1.69 | 55.0% | -4.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.41 | 66.5% | -0.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.33 | 41.0% | -1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.38 | 21.5% | -1.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | 48.8% | +0.0 pts |
| Monza over 1.5 team goals | 3.09 | 30.3% | +1.3 pts |
| Udinese over 1.5 team goals | 2.66 | 35.2% | -3.5 pts |
| Monza clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +1.7 pts |
| Udinese clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | -0.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.73 · 0-1 6.63 · 1-0 7.53 · 0-0 7.68 · 1-2 9.13
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 18:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).