Norwich 4–1 Burnley
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 4–1; by chance quality the match ran 2.30–1.38.
The brain read
Norwich created the better chances — the xG read 2.3–1.4 and the shot count agreed (20–16, 6–4 on target). Burnley held 65% of the ball. Norwich's finishing ran hot — 4 from 2.3 xG, 6 of 20 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 4–1 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Norwich or draw | 1.31 | 71.9% | +5.6 pts |
| Double chance Burnley or draw | 1.73 | 54.2% | -6.4 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 73.9% | +0.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Norwich | 1.50 | 61.7% | +8.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Burnley | 2.42 | 38.3% | -8.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.23 | 76.3% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 | 53.8% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.82 | 33.3% | +1.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.63 | 57.2% | +0.5 pts |
| Norwich over 1.5 team goals | 1.92 | 48.6% | +5.3 pts |
| Burnley over 1.5 team goals | 2.64 | 35.4% | -3.5 pts |
| Norwich clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +2.0 pts |
| Burnley clean sheet | 4.50 | 20.8% | -5.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.58 · 1-0 8.20 · 2-1 8.21 · 2-0 10.22 · 1-2 10.78
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).