Padova 1–1 Hellas Verona
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 0.93–1.68.
The brain read
Hellas Verona created the better chances — the xG read 0.9–1.7 and the shot count agreed (7–13, 2–3 on target). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Hellas Verona shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Padova 3-5-2
- 5 M. Lovato (D)
- 8 P. Fusi (M)
- 9 L. Moro (F)
- 10 G. Caprari (F)
- 14 M. Pompetti (M)
- 21 E. Zuelli (M)
- 22 A. Sorrentino (G)
- 24 L. Carissoni (D)
- 27 Alessandro Dellavalle (D)
- 34 M. Cocchi (D)
- 58 C. Pastina (D)
Bench: M. Bortolussi, A. Capelli, F. Di Mariano, C. Faedo, G. Giunti, K. Lasagna, L. Mouquet, F. Sgarbi, K. Varas
Hellas Verona 3-5-2
- 1 N. Leali (G)
- 4 G. Zappa (D)
- 5 A. Edmundsson (D)
- 6 D. Bradarić (D)
- 9 A. Sarr (F)
- 11 M. Compagnon (F)
- 17 A. Le Borgne (M)
- 19 S. Mulattieri (F)
- 21 A. Harroui (M)
- 24 A. Bernede (M)
- 28 T. Slotsager (D)
Bench: S. Cerbone, N. Calabrese, Fallou Cham, D. De Battisti, G. Kastanos, S. Korač, N. Lella, D. Livramento, S. Perilli, K. Sezonienko, G. Toniolo, Ioan Vermeșan
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Padova or draw | 1.49 | 62.8% | +0.3 pts |
| Double chance Hellas Verona or draw | 1.39 | 67.6% | -0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.35 | 69.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Padova | 1.98 | 47.0% | +0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Hellas Verona | 1.75 | 53.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.36 | 68.6% | +3.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.17 | 43.4% | +3.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.92 | 23.9% | +2.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.84 | 50.7% | +2.9 pts |
| Padova over 1.5 team goals | 2.85 | 32.7% | +2.3 pts |
| Hellas Verona over 1.5 team goals | 2.61 | 35.7% | +1.6 pts |
| Padova clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -2.2 pts |
| Hellas Verona clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -4.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.65 · 0-1 7.17 · 0-0 7.61 · 1-0 7.69 · 1-2 9.10
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).