Sabadell 1–0 Almeria
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.89–0.79.
The brain read
Sabadell created the better chances — the xG read 1.9–0.8 and the shot count agreed (14–11, 4–2 on target). Sabadell got into the box far more often (11 shots inside it to 8). Sabadell's finishing let them down — 1 from 1.9 xG despite 4 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On the balance of chances, the 1–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Sabadell 4-4-2
- 1 Diego Fuoli (G)
- 4 Miki Codina (D)
- 5 Arthur (D)
- 7 Ton Ripoll (M)
- 8 Pere Pons (M)
- 16 N. Gioacchini (F)
- 20 Urri (M)
- 22 Q. Liameed (M)
- 23 Joel Priego (F)
- 27 José Luis Català (D)
Bench: Eneko Aguilar, Xavier Moreno Hernández, N. Obolskiy, Pipa, Y. Rahmani, M. A. Ramirez Carrasco, Gastón Valles
Almeria 4-2-3-1
- 1 Andrés Fernández (G)
- 3 Álex Muñoz (D)
- 5 Jorge Pulido (D)
- 6 Mikel Vesga (M)
- 7 Jon Morcillo (M)
- 10 Nico Melamed (M)
- 18 F. Bonini (D)
- 22 D. Chirino (D)
- 23 Adri Embarba (M)
- 24 Miguel de la Fuente (F)
- 29 S. Džodić (M)
Bench: Álex Sola, Rodrigo Ely, Nélson Monte, Fernando Martínez, Marcos Luna, Jesús López, Léo Baptistão, Quim Junyent, B. Cipenga, Chumi
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sabadell or draw | 1.40 | 67.1% | +3.1 pts |
| Double chance Almeria or draw | 1.49 | 62.9% | -2.9 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.34 | 70.0% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sabadell | 1.74 | 53.2% | +4.7 pts |
| Draw no bet — Almeria | 1.99 | 46.8% | -4.7 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.39 | 66.9% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.24 | 42.2% | +0.0 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.13 | 22.6% | +0.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.88 | 49.3% | +0.3 pts |
| Sabadell over 1.5 team goals | 2.66 | 35.1% | +2.3 pts |
| Almeria over 1.5 team goals | 2.93 | 31.7% | -2.2 pts |
| Sabadell clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +1.7 pts |
| Almeria clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | -6.4 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.56 · 1-0 6.54 · 0-0 7.20 · 0-1 7.21 · 2-1 9.01
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 17:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).