Sampdoria 1–2 Juve Stabia
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.42–0.90.
The brain read
Sampdoria created the better chances — the xG read 1.4–0.9, with the shot count roughly even (17–17, 6–5 on target). Juve Stabia's finishing ran hot — 2 from 0.9 xG, 5 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 1–2 flatters Juve Stabia — on chances created, Sampdoria shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sampdoria or draw | 1.19 | 79.0% | +0.9 pts |
| Double chance Juve Stabia or draw | 1.90 | 49.4% | -1.3 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 71.6% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sampdoria | 1.32 | 70.0% | +1.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Juve Stabia | 3.09 | 30.0% | -1.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.39 | 66.9% | +0.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.25 | 41.8% | +1.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.17 | 22.3% | +0.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.01 | 46.1% | +0.3 pts |
| Sampdoria over 1.5 team goals | 2.14 | 43.8% | +1.3 pts |
| Juve Stabia over 1.5 team goals | 4.19 | 22.3% | -0.7 pts |
| Sampdoria clean sheet | 2.10 | 44.3% | +1.9 pts |
| Juve Stabia clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-0 5.61 · 1-1 6.11 · 0-0 7.28 · 2-0 7.64 · 2-1 8.14
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 19:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Mar 26 | Juve Stabia | 1-1 | Sampdoria |
| 24 Nov 25 | Sampdoria | 1-0 | Juve Stabia |