Sevilla 1–3 Atletico Madrid
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–3; by chance quality the match ran 0.96–0.93.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Sevilla to win (40%); it finished with Atletico Madrid to win. A miss — it gave the actual result 31% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1–0.9, shots 21–12 with 5–5 on target. Sevilla got into the box far more often (12 shots inside it to 9). Atletico Madrid's finishing ran hot — 3 from 0.9 xG, 5 of 12 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–3 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Sevilla or draw | 1.87 | 50.7% | -3.8 pts |
| Double chance Atletico Madrid or draw | 1.23 | 77.0% | +4.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.31 | 72.3% | -0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Sevilla | 2.87 | 32.3% | -5.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Atletico Madrid | 1.37 | 67.7% | +5.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.33 | 70.8% | -1.9 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.06 | 46.3% | -2.9 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.60 | 26.1% | -2.6 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.85 | 50.3% | -3.3 pts |
| Sevilla over 1.5 team goals | 3.52 | 26.6% | -5.0 pts |
| Atletico Madrid over 1.5 team goals | 2.04 | 46.0% | +0.7 pts |
| Sevilla clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.1 pts |
| Atletico Madrid clean sheet | 2.38 | 39.1% | +4.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.17 · 0-1 6.50 · 1-2 8.09 · 0-2 8.48 · 0-0 9.21
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 19:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Apr 26 | Sevilla | 2-1 | Atletico Madrid |
| 01 Nov 25 | Atletico Madrid | 3-0 | Sevilla |