Strasbourg 2–1 Lens
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.66–2.89.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Strasbourg to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 40% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Lens created the better chances — the xG read 1.7–2.9, with the shot count roughly even (16–17, 7–7 on target). Lens's finishing let them down — 1 from 2.9 xG despite 7 of 17 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 2–1 flatters Strasbourg — on chances created, Lens shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Strasbourg 4-2-3-1
- 1 F. Jörgensen (G)
- 2 A. Omobamidele (D)
- 4 J. Mitchell (D)
- 10 G. Reyna (M)
- 11 S. Nanasi (M)
- 16 G. Antwi (D)
- 21 P. Diop (M)
- 23 Diogo Sousa (M)
- 24 L. Høgsberg (D)
- 30 J. Ortega (F)
- 80 Gessime Yassine (M)
Bench: S. Amo-Ameyaw, M. Amougou, Fabio Amadu Uri Baldé, B. Brantlind, Abdoul Karim Coulibaly, M. Del Blanco, S. Mara, Tyrese Noubissie, M. Piekutowski
Lens 3-4-2-1
- 3 M. Nawrocki (D)
- 8 Y. Titraoui (M)
- 10 F. Thauvin (M)
- 14 M. Udol (M)
- 19 A. Sima (F)
- 22 M. Skóraś (M)
- 25 I. Ganiou (D)
- 27 M. Cuisance (M)
- 29 F. Ivanović (M)
- 31 S. Sagnan (D)
- 40 R. Risser (G)
Bench: F. Sotoca, Mezian Mesloub, T. Hazard, A. Haidara, R. Fofana, N. Äelik, R. Aguilar, A. Bulatović
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Strasbourg or draw | 1.87 | 50.6% | -3.9 pts |
| Double chance Lens or draw | 1.26 | 75.1% | +3.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.28 | 74.3% | +0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Strasbourg | 2.73 | 34.0% | -5.2 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lens | 1.40 | 66.0% | +5.2 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 80.1% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.61 | 59.3% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.46 | 38.4% | +2.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.54 | 60.7% | +0.7 pts |
| Strasbourg over 1.5 team goals | 2.56 | 36.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Lens over 1.5 team goals | 1.71 | 54.7% | +4.1 pts |
| Strasbourg clean sheet | 5.50 | 17.2% | -3.5 pts |
| Lens clean sheet | 3.25 | 29.0% | +1.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.91 · 1-2 7.90 · 0-1 9.16 · 0-2 10.50 · 2-2 10.94
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 17:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Feb 26 | Strasbourg | 1-1 | Lens |
| 22 Nov 25 | Lens | 1-0 | Strasbourg |