SV Elversberg 3–2 Bayer Leverkusen
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.27–1.88.
The brain read
Bayer Leverkusen created the better chances — the xG read 1.3–1.9 and the shot count agreed (11–21, 6–4 on target). Bayer Leverkusen got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 8) and Bayer Leverkusen held 67% of the ball. SV Elversberg's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.3 xG, 6 of 11 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). The 3–2 flatters SV Elversberg — on chances created, Bayer Leverkusen shaded it.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
SV Elversberg 4-2-3-1
- 8 Ł. Poręba (M)
- 19 L. Pinckert (D)
- 20 N. Kristof (G)
- 21 L. Günther (D)
- 25 L. Petkov (M)
- 30 J. Gyamerah (D)
- 31 M. Rohr (D)
- 39 William Cole Campbell (M)
- 40 Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka (M)
- 42 D. Mokwa (F)
- 43 F. Keidel (M)
Bench: T. Boss, A. Condé, Noah Darvich, N. Futkeu, M. Krattenmacher, F. Le Joncour, N. Mickelson, L. Schnellbacher, L. Sirch
Bayer Leverkusen 4-2-3-1
- 1 M. Flekken (G)
- 3 Miguel Gutiérrez (D)
- 5 L. Badé (D)
- 6 E. Fernández (M)
- 9 Afonso Moreira (M)
- 10 M. Tillman (M)
- 12 E. Tapsoba (D)
- 14 P. Schick (F)
- 17 Lucas Vázquez (D)
- 24 Aleix García (M)
- 30 I. Maza (M)
Bench: Christian Kofane, F. Medina, J. Quansah, J. Hofmann, V. Boniface, J. Blaswich, J. Belocian, Arthur, R. Andrich
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance SV Elversberg or draw | 2.35 | 40.3% | +1.2 pts |
| Double chance Bayer Leverkusen or draw | 1.17 | 80.7% | -0.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.20 | 79.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — SV Elversberg | 3.79 | 24.6% | +0.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Bayer Leverkusen | 1.23 | 75.4% | -0.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.12 | 83.9% | +0.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 65.0% | +0.7 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.15 | 44.3% | +1.0 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.52 | 61.6% | +0.9 pts |
| SV Elversberg over 1.5 team goals | 2.80 | 33.4% | +1.0 pts |
| Bayer Leverkusen over 1.5 team goals | 1.45 | 64.7% | +0.4 pts |
| SV Elversberg clean sheet | 8.00 | 11.9% | +0.0 pts |
| Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet | 3.00 | 31.2% | -2.2 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-2 7.99 · 1-1 8.74 · 0-2 9.52 · 0-1 10.05 · 1-3 10.59
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 15:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).