Union Berlin 3–3 Eintracht Frankfurt
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 3–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.84–1.47.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Union Berlin to win (42%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Union Berlin created the better chances — the xG read 1.8–1.5 and the shot count agreed (19–12, 10–3 on target). Union Berlin got into the box far more often (15 shots inside it to 7). Union Berlin's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.8 xG, 10 of 19 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Union Berlin shaded the game.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Union Berlin 4-4-2
- 4 Z. Van Den Bosch (D)
- 6 A. Kemlein (M)
- 8 R. Khedira (M)
- 13 A. Schäfer (M)
- 14 L. Querfeld (D)
- 15 T. Rothe (D)
- 18 J. Juranović (D)
- 20 M. Aebischer (M)
- 27 M. LjubiÄiÄ (F)
- 29 E. Latte Lath (F)
- 31 M. Raab (G)
Bench: Livan Burcu, J. Haberer, Jeong Woo-Yeong, C. Klaus, D. Köhn, T. Skarke, C. Trimmel, F. Uduokhai
Eintracht Frankfurt 4-4-2
- 1 N. Atubolu (G)
- 2 Elias Baum (D)
- 4 R. Koch (D)
- 8 F. Chaïbi (M)
- 9 J. Burkardt (F)
- 11 Y. Ebnoutalib (F)
- 25 R. Onyedika (M)
- 26 K. Kosugi (D)
- 29 A. Amaimouni (M)
- 37 J. Maluze (D)
- 42 C. Uzun (M)
Bench: Kauã Santos, M. Götze, Otávio, M. Pimpong, T. Chandler, J. Bahoya, N. Aséko Nkili, L. Arrhov, O. Højlund
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Union Berlin or draw | 1.50 | 63.4% | -2.0 pts |
| Double chance Eintracht Frankfurt or draw | 1.50 | 63.2% | +2.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.29 | 73.5% | +0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Union Berlin | 1.85 | 50.2% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw no bet — Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.86 | 49.8% | +2.5 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 79.8% | +1.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 58.8% | +2.3 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.48 | 37.9% | +2.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.50 | 62.3% | +2.4 pts |
| Union Berlin over 1.5 team goals | 2.04 | 45.9% | +0.8 pts |
| Eintracht Frankfurt over 1.5 team goals | 2.04 | 45.9% | +3.6 pts |
| Union Berlin clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | -1.5 pts |
| Eintracht Frankfurt clean sheet | 4.00 | 23.4% | +0.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.70 · 1-2 9.16 · 2-1 9.16 · 1-0 10.32 · 0-1 10.44
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 15:40 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06 Feb 26 | Union Berlin | 1-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt |
| 21 Sep 25 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3-4 | Union Berlin |