FootballEdgeSeason 2026/27Self-updating record
Full time · Championship · Sat 29 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC

Watford 11 West Ham

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What the chances were worth

Watford
1.60
expected goals (xG)
West Ham
0.89
expected goals (xG)

The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.60–0.89.

The brain read

Watford created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–0.9 and the shot count agreed (16–13, 5–1 on target). Watford got into the box far more often (14 shots inside it to 6) and West Ham held 62% of the ball. A draw on the scoreboard, but on chances created Watford shaded the game.

A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.

The match in numbers

Watford
West Ham
38%
Ball Possession
62%
16
Total Shots
13
5
Shots on Goal
1
4
Shots off Goal
5
7
Blocked Shots
7
14
Shots inside box
6
2
Shots outside box
7
3
Corner Kicks
11
1
Offsides
3
302
Total passes
498
234
Passes accurate
420
10
Fouls
7
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
7
Free Kicks
10

As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.

The market’s read

Watford
21%
market implied · price 4.56 · opened 25%
Draw
24%
market implied · price 3.98 · opened 25%
West Ham
56%
market implied · price 1.70 · opened 50%
MarketConsensus priceImplied chanceMove
Double chance Watford or draw2.1144.5%-5.0 pts
Double chance West Ham or draw1.1979.0%+3.8 pts
Double chance either team1.2376.6%+1.2 pts
Draw no bet — Watford3.3028.1%-5.3 pts
Draw no bet — West Ham1.2971.9%+5.3 pts
Over 1.5 goals1.1879.7%+1.1 pts
Over 2.5 goals1.6158.9%+1.0 pts
Over 3.5 goals2.4837.8%+0.9 pts
Both teams to score1.5958.6%-1.1 pts
Watford over 1.5 team goals2.9431.8%-3.1 pts
West Ham over 1.5 team goals1.6157.9%+3.6 pts
Watford clean sheet6.5014.6%-3.2 pts
West Ham clean sheet2.7533.7%+2.8 pts

Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 7.31 · 1-2 7.78 · 0-1 8.60 · 0-2 9.09 · 1-3 11.50

Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-29 16:10 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).

Prices are observations, not offers. Each price is the average across the bookmakers the collector sees, and the implied chance is that price with the bookmaker’s margin stripped out. The market’s read is published so the model’s read can be judged against it — nothing here is advice, and nothing here is staked.