Arezzo 2–3 Palermo
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–3; by chance quality the match ran 1.46–1.57.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.5–1.6, shots 14–14 with 5–5 on target. Palermo's finishing ran hot — 3 from 1.6 xG, 5 of 14 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–3 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Arezzo or draw | 1.73 | 54.2% | -5.4 pts |
| Double chance Palermo or draw | 1.27 | 73.9% | +4.0 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 71.9% | +1.4 pts |
| Draw no bet — Arezzo | 2.50 | 36.9% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Palermo | 1.46 | 63.1% | +6.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 71.3% | +5.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 46.8% | +5.5 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.53 | 26.5% | +4.4 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.78 | 52.1% | +3.9 pts |
| Arezzo over 1.5 team goals | 3.14 | 29.7% | +0.6 pts |
| Palermo over 1.5 team goals | 2.13 | 43.9% | +6.9 pts |
| Arezzo clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -2.7 pts |
| Palermo clean sheet | 2.62 | 35.5% | +0.0 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.93 · 0-1 6.60 · 1-2 8.05 · 0-0 8.58 · 0-2 9.30
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-30 16:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).