Lazio 1–0 Genoa
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.55–0.57.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Lazio to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 36% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Lazio created the better chances — the xG read 1.6–0.6 and the shot count agreed (15–8, 2–1 on target). Lazio got into the box far more often (8 shots inside it to 5). On the balance of chances, the 1–0 reads fair.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Lazio 4-3-3
- 5 Danilho Doekhi (D)
- 6 Nicolò Rovella (M)
- 10 Mattia Zaccagni (F)
- 15 Romano Floriani Mussolini (D)
- 16 Davide Frattesi (M)
- 17 Nuno Tavares (D)
- 19 Boulaye Dia (F)
- 22 Matteo Cancellieri (F)
- 24 Kenneth Taylor (M)
- 25 Oliver Provstgaard (D)
- 35 Christos Mandas (G)
Bench: Davide Renzetti, Edoardo Motta, Alfonso Pedraza, Ricardo Bordon, Alessio Romagnoli, Josip Šutalo, Manuel Lazzari, Valerio Farcomeni, Adrian Przyborek, Reda Belahyane, Gustav Isaksen, Federico Serra, Tijjani Noslin, Andrea Pinamonti
Genoa 3-4-2-1
- 1 Justin Bijlow (G)
- 5 Leo Østigård (D)
- 8 Tommaso Baldanzi (F)
- 9 Vitinha (F)
- 15 Brooke Norton-Cuffy (M)
- 22 Johan Vásquez (D)
- 27 Alessandro Marcandalli (D)
- 29 Lorenzo Colombo (F)
- 32 Morten Frendrup (M)
- 77 Mikael Ellertsson (M)
- 97 Djibril Sow (M)
Bench: Daniele Sommariva, Franz Stolz, Marcelo Vaz, Mamedi Doucoure, Sebastian Otoa, David Puczka, Mario Mitaj, Franz-Ethan Meichtry, Samuel Wiafe, Alexsandro Amorim, Stefano Sabelli, Aarón Martín, Junior Messias, Elias Havel, Milutin Osmajić
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Lazio or draw | 1.29 | 73.0% | -4.5 pts |
| Double chance Genoa or draw | 1.61 | 58.4% | +6.5 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.38 | 68.5% | -2.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Lazio | 1.54 | 60.8% | -6.8 pts |
| Draw no bet — Genoa | 2.38 | 39.2% | +6.8 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.49 | 63.5% | -1.8 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.53 | 37.6% | -2.6 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.88 | 19.3% | -1.8 pts |
| Both teams to score | 2.02 | 46.1% | -0.0 pts |
| Lazio over 1.5 team goals | 2.62 | 35.7% | -5.5 pts |
| Genoa over 1.5 team goals | 3.63 | 25.7% | +2.7 pts |
| Lazio clean sheet | 2.37 | 39.3% | -3.4 pts |
| Genoa clean sheet | 3.23 | 29.0% | +3.7 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.54 · 1-0 5.87 · 0-0 6.55 · 0-1 7.78 · 2-1 9.09
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-30 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jan 26 | Lazio | 3-2 | Genoa |
| 29 Sep 25 | Genoa | 0-3 | Lazio |