Leeds 1–1 Brentford
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–1; by chance quality the match ran 1.43–1.56.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
Before kick-off the model favoured Leeds to win (42%); it finished with the draw. A miss — it gave the actual result 27% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.4–1.6, shots 12–22 with 2–5 on target. Brentford got into the box far more often (18 shots inside it to 6). A 1–1 draw the numbers agree with.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Leeds or draw | 1.45 | 64.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Double chance Brentford or draw | 1.49 | 63.1% | +0.2 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.30 | 72.0% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Leeds | 1.81 | 51.6% | +0.0 pts |
| Draw no bet — Brentford | 1.93 | 48.4% | -0.0 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.28 | 73.7% | -0.2 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.92 | 49.9% | -0.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.25 | 29.1% | -0.7 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.70 | 55.2% | -0.8 pts |
| Leeds over 1.5 team goals | 2.30 | 40.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Brentford over 1.5 team goals | 2.39 | 39.2% | +0.7 pts |
| Leeds clean sheet | 3.50 | 26.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Brentford clean sheet | 3.75 | 25.0% | -1.8 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.14 · 1-0 8.51 · 0-1 8.89 · 2-1 9.22 · 1-2 9.69
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-30 12:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Mar 26 | Leeds | 0-0 | Brentford |
| 14 Dec 25 | Brentford | 1-1 | Leeds |