Monaco 2–0 Marseille
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 2–0; by chance quality the match ran 1.49–1.22.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Monaco to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 43% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.5–1.2, shots 11–13 with 5–3 on target. Marseille held 65% of the ball. Marseille's finishing let them down — 0 from 1.2 xG despite 3 of 13 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 2–0 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
Confirmed line-ups
Captured from the official team sheets in the last hour before kick-off. The pick test requires these to be in before any call counts.
Monaco 4-2-3-1
- 1 Lukáš Hrádecký (G)
- 2 Vanderson (D)
- 6 Denis Zakaria (M)
- 8 Lamine Camara (M)
- 10 Aleksandr Golovin (M)
- 15 Eric Dier (D)
- 17 Stanis Idumbo Muzambo (M)
- 20 Nazinho (D)
- 28 Mamadou Coulibaly (M)
- 29 Paris Brunner (F)
- 72 Sadibou Sané (D)
Bench: Philipp Köhn, Jordan Teze, Thilo Kehrer, Christian Mawissa, Mathys Detourbet, Anis Soubeir, Mika Biereth, Matthis Abline, Safouane Benzahra
Marseille 4-2-3-1
- 4 Conrad Jaden Egan-Riley (D)
- 7 Angel Gomes (M)
- 9 Amine Gouiri (F)
- 12 Jeffrey De Lange (G)
- 19 Geoffrey Kondogbia (M)
- 21 Nayef Aguerd (D)
- 22 Timothy Weah (D)
- 23 Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (M)
- 27 Quinten Timber (M)
- 33 Emerson (D)
- 77 Amine Harit (M)
Bench: Théo Vermot, Derek Cornelius, Ulisses Garcia, Himad Abdelli, Keyliane Abdallah, Tochukwu Nnadi, Tadjidine Mmadi, Neal Maupay, Faris Moumbagna
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Monaco or draw | 1.37 | 69.0% | +5.7 pts |
| Double chance Marseille or draw | 1.66 | 57.0% | -5.1 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.27 | 74.0% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw no bet — Monaco | 1.62 | 57.7% | +7.1 pts |
| Draw no bet — Marseille | 2.21 | 42.3% | -7.1 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 80.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 59.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 38.8% | -1.1 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.48 | 63.0% | -0.9 pts |
| Monaco over 1.5 team goals | 1.85 | 50.5% | +2.5 pts |
| Marseille over 1.5 team goals | 2.23 | 42.0% | -4.8 pts |
| Monaco clean sheet | 3.70 | 25.3% | +2.6 pts |
| Marseille clean sheet | 4.75 | 19.8% | -2.1 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 6.67 · 2-1 8.40 · 1-2 9.99 · 1-0 9.99 · 2-2 10.31
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-30 18:30 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Apr 26 | Monaco | 2-1 | Marseille |
| 14 Dec 25 | Marseille | 1-0 | Monaco |