Napoli 1–2 Como
What the chances were worth
The scoreline says 1–2; by chance quality the match ran 1.35–1.03.
What the model expected
Its probabilities for this match, logged before kick-off and never changed. The result is highlighted.
The model made Como to win its most likely call before kick-off, and that is what happened. It had the result at 36% beforehand.
One match tells you nothing on its own — whether these percentages are any good is the whole point of the calibration page, where every one of them is scored.
The brain read
Little between them on chances created — the xG read 1.4–1, shots 13–21 with 2–6 on target. Como got into the box far more often (13 shots inside it to 9). Como's finishing ran hot — 2 from 1 xG, 6 of 21 shots on target (a finishing read inferred from shots on target and goals vs xG — not measured shot placement). On chances created the game was tighter than the 1–2 suggests.
A second opinion written by rule from the numbers on this page — where the shot picture and the xG disagree, it says so rather than picking a winner. Backward-looking only; it claims nothing about any future result.
The match in numbers
As returned by the data feed at full time. Bars show each side’s share of the stat.
The market’s read
| Market | Consensus price | Implied chance | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance Napoli or draw | 1.37 | 68.9% | +0.5 pts |
| Double chance Como or draw | 1.51 | 62.2% | +0.8 pts |
| Double chance either team | 1.37 | 68.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Napoli | 1.70 | 54.9% | +0.3 pts |
| Draw no bet — Como | 2.07 | 45.1% | -0.3 pts |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.40 | 67.5% | +1.0 pts |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.24 | 42.6% | +1.4 pts |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.09 | 23.0% | +1.3 pts |
| Both teams to score | 1.86 | 50.4% | +1.7 pts |
| Napoli over 1.5 team goals | 2.58 | 36.3% | +0.9 pts |
| Como over 1.5 team goals | 2.96 | 31.5% | +0.7 pts |
| Napoli clean sheet | 2.75 | 33.7% | +0.0 pts |
| Como clean sheet | 3.17 | 29.5% | -0.3 pts |
Shortest-priced scorelines: 1-1 5.53 · 1-0 6.98 · 0-0 7.59 · 0-1 7.91 · 2-1 9.11
Consensus of bookmaker prices captured 2026-08-30 16:00 UTC. These are the closing prices — the market’s last word before kick-off. The Move column is how each market’s implied chance has shifted since the first price we captured: green = the chance has risen (the price shortened, backing coming in), red = the chance has fallen (the price eased out — what punters call the price ‘drifting’).
Head to head
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May 26 | Como | 0-0 | Napoli |
| 01 Nov 25 | Napoli | 0-0 | Como |